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About Those Saturday Stats

I wanted to take a minute and talk about the numbers I presented in the previous post…

General Pop Police Pop
Violent Crime 466.7 724.7
Sexual Assault / Rape 84.9 87.2
Homicide 5.6 64.1

Yes, those crime rates per 100,000 numbers.

Some critics were gleeful to report that they thought it was unfair to list a comparison of police misconduct allegations reported by the press against a list of crime stats gathered by the US government.

First, let me again specify that the general population crime rates come from the FBI/DOJ Uniform Crime Reports for the US which derive their numbers from the number of crimes that were REPORTED to police departments throughout the US who volunteer their information to the US government each year, which is almost all of them. (Contrast this with the less than 1% that share data about police misconduct rates with the US government).

So… more or less, the US statistics are based on allegations of criminal acts, not actual convictions or anything concrete like that.

Now, let me specify that I derive my police misconduct rate numbers from instances of police misconduct that are reported through the media. Again, not concrete, but think about it this way…

The numbers I use are a small sample subset of the number of actual alleged instances of police misconduct that are actually reported to police internal affairs departments, the media, and lawyers all over.  After all, these are only the number of reported instances that make it through the filter of the media who often do refuse to report on most of the allegations they hear about. So there is already one filter on my numbers which increases the likelihood that there are more actual instances than there are reported instances.

Additionally, one must consider that there are a good number of people who have been victims of police misconduct that never report it to the press or even take it through a police department’s complaint processes for any number of reasons… which again increases the likelihood that my numbers are actually much lower than the actual incident rate… not higher.

So, we have allegations made against citizens in the US UCR and we have allegations against police in the numbers I came up with through the National Police Misconduct Statistics and Reporting Project (NPMSRP)… both sets are allegations, one set has no filters to adjust those numbers downwards from what they really might be, while mine have at least two filters before they get reported by me.

Now, after saying all of that, I could make a claim that it’s far more likely that my stats are closer to reality than theirs, but I’m not saying that because it’s impossible to tell. But I will say that it’s at least a reasonably close rough estimate as to how prevalent the police misconduct rate might be as compared to the general population crime rate.

Why make the analysis? What’s the point?

Well, whenever spokespersons from police departments respond to incidents of police misconduct they always, without fail, insist on saying that the percentage of police officers in their department that engage in police misconduct is a very small number…

This may be true, even though we have no real reliable way of making that determination. However, it’s still disingenuous because, as a percentage, the number of criminals within the general population of the US is also a very small number. But, as the numbers I’ve gathered show, it’s likely to be at least an equal number per capita.

In other words, a police officer is just as likely to be inclined towards criminality as anyone else within society. After all, they are human just like we are, and as such no more or less deserving of respect, consideration, or rights than any other person.

This is, of course, the root of the problem with police misconduct. It’s not that cops are not human or inherently more evil than the rest of us… it’s that they are human, just like us, and just as prone to give into the kind of allure which power brings which begs for abuse. And our society is such that we trust officers so unquestionably that it invites abuse. Our system of law enforcement and justice is so stilted in favor of the police that it begs for abuse. And the culture of law enforcement is such that it works hard to hide that abuse out of a perverted sense of brotherhood, of tribe before nation, and of self before service.

The best way forward to addressing the problem of police misconduct is to understand it, and so far the tools we need to gain that understanding have been withheld from us…

…and that’s why I keep trying to build new ones by gathering and analyzing these statistics.

10 comments to About Those Saturday Stats

  • Do the police statistics include on duty and off duty actions? Not to excuse their behavior but an argument could certainly be made, especially for homicide, that police officers are regularly placed in more dangerous situations than the general public. Adding the fact that they are armed and most of the public is not, could account for some of the huge difference in rates.

    The other reason I ask is to find out if these are violent people who happen to be police officers, or people who use the fact that they are police officers to be violent.

  • Good question, they include on and off duty incidents and there’s a few reasons for that… but the first and foremost reason is that officers and their representative organizations often make the argument that police officers are police officers 24/7 and that, even when off duty, they retain the expanded rights that all on-duty officers enjoy which include arrest powers.

    In fact, a recent case of a barroom shooting in Sturgis SD illustrated this by the fact that the officers who were armed and shot a biker while drinking at a bar successfully argued that recent federal legislation passed by congress which allows officers to carry anywhere, even places normally restricted for civilians based on the argument that officers are officers 24/7, superseded state and local laws that prohibited use of firearms in bars or other facilities. Because of this, none of them faced any charges over the event that regular people would have. Not to mention that the special deference they are afforded by juries, judges, and prosecutors, both as witnesses and defendants, does not make a distinction between on or off duty.

    When society treats officers better and grant them more rights than civilians even when they are off duty, then there is no distinction between on duty and off duty incidents.

    As for whether police officers are inclined to violence prior to becoming police officers or if being a police officer becomes violent as part of an occupational hazard. I’d imagine that it’s a little of both… and there just isn’t enough research data available to make that kind of determination as to what the ratio is for each scenario.

    However, it is clear that many police departments, in efforts to cut costs, invite abuses by actively recruiting new officers from the ranks of those who were fired elsewhere for misconduct and employ advertising that focuses on the adrenaline/testosterone junkies over the service-oriented candidates, the kind of officers who really do go into it because they want to help others and give back to the community… which are the very ones who are most resilient against corruption.

    It’s a complex issue… and as the project continues I hope we’ll see some trending data that might help us understand the issue, it’s causes, and maybe even some possible solutions.

    Thanks for the comment, I appreciate it.

  • Ariel

    Packratt,
    I’m curious if you have seen any stats on alcohol-related crimes, given that police suffer from alcoholism and alcohol abuse at about twice that for the general population. I pulled that from two different police sites regarding stress IIRC.
    You’re doing a wonderful job. Please keep it up.

  • The more of this I see the more I think it’s increasingly unlikely we’ll ever see mandatory self-reporting for departments. There’s no way they want people to see what the actual numbers would be if we didn’t have to rely on just what makes it to the press.

  • Ariel,

    I’ve not specifically tracked when alcohol was alleged to be involved in reported incidents except for when it’s obvious, (i.e. DUI-related incidents)… however, just by observation, I can say that it appears as though alcohol abuse is a factor in many violent incidents. As to what exact number, it would be difficult for me to determine given the current method of data collection that I use.

    Michael,

    You might be right… but we have to find out what’s going on somehow, even if it’s only a glimpse I guess.

    Thanks for the comments!

  • no bad cops

    “Our system of law enforcement and justice is so stilted in favor of the police that it begs for abuse. And the culture of law enforcement is such that it works hard to hide that abuse out of a perverted sense of brotherhood, of tribe before nation, and of self before service.”

    You’ve summed this up perfectly. Really great writing here.

  • no bad cops

    “In other words, a police officer is just as likely to be inclined towards criminality as anyone else within society”

    If we look at the types of crimes cops are accused of, it appears they are indeed more disturbed and more inclined towards serious criminal behavior then the rest of us. Your post on criminal cops of the week proves this.

  • NBC,

    Thanks for the kind words… As far as the types of crimes listed, one thing we need to keep in mind is that the statistics I track are based mostly on reported incidents in the press. So, it may or may not be the case that many of the other kinds of crimes, like property theft, etc, are vastly underrepresented by my statistics gathering methods simply because those stories don’t make good headlines.

    It’s hard to tell except that, when we look at the scant reports made available from police departments with a civilian oversight component, we see that most of the allegations listed from those are actually internal issues, policy violations, overtime abuse, and other issues that we would probably consider as minor, but may be the most common.

    Another thing we have to keep in mind here is that the numbers I’m putting up are merely an extrapolation based on a 2 month average extended out to 12 months, so the final numbers at the end of a year may well be vastly different.

    In fact, for the first two months I counted 23 alleged cases of sexual crimes against children by police officers… for the first half of this month alone, I’ve already tracked 20. All 43 are individual cases and not duplicates… so the numbers are already moving beyond the margin I predicted.

    Thanks for the comment.

  • Joshua

    Though not specific to this topic I have to say I love that you do what you do. Unfortunately between this on and Photography is not a Crime they are the two blogs I almost hope never update

  • Joshua,

    Thank you for the kind words… and trust me, there are times I wish I had nothing to write about and no news stories to report, usually a few times a day in fact.

    Especially when dealing with topics like the one I plan to write about next… it’s something I wish I never had to write about.

    Thanks again for the comment, I appreciate it.